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Jan 17, 2020 - Market Blog

1/17/2020

 

Pin to Win??

The popular social networking platform, Pinterest (PINS) has started to pick up momentum as of late after its user base broke 82.4 million in 2019.  The jump was enough to propel the company to a 3rd place standing ahead of Snapchat (SNAP) in the world of social.  Researchers are predicting the company will surpass 90 million users by 2022 with a more universal appeal than niche audiences of their competitors.  Shares are up again this morning off another analyst upgrade to see the shares launch nearly 24% higher this week alone. 

 

Filling in the Gap

Shares of Gap Inc. (GPS) are on the rise this morning after the struggling apparel company ultimately decided not to spin off Old Navy into a separately traded company due to the higher than expected costs and complexity involved.  Shares were down nearly 25% over the last 12 months as same store sales have gradually decreased over previous quarters. The company is also searching for a new CEO after a recent shake-up.  As a bright spot, the company did simultaneously bump 2020 guidance above its previous range with various cost controls which was enough to see shares are up nearly 5% ahead of the open. The company will shares more details on this transition with their next earnings call on February 27th

 

Pre-Market Movers and Shakers

S&P 500 futures (/ES) +0.2% near 3325

U.S. Crude Oil futures (/CL) +0.4% near $58.78 a barrel

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -1.30%  near 12.15

 

CSX Corp (CSX) -1.90% near $75.25, after company dipped lower on revenue miss

Western Digital (WDC) +5.0% near $70.25, following a noticeable upgrade

Comcast (CMCSA) +1.5% near $47.50, after company announced more details surrounding its Peacock streaming service

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

9:00 am CT – JOLTS

9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

12:00 pm CT – Baker-Hughes Rig Count

 

Notable Earnings:

Friday  – 1/17

A.M. – FAST, KSU, SLB

P.M. – N/A

 

Monday – 1/20

A.M. – Market is closed

P.M. – N/A


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Jan 16, 2020 - Market Blog

1/16/2020

  

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More Than Stanley

Morgan Stanley (MS), the last of the big banks to report quarterly results, posted earnings that solidly beat expectations.  The bank’s profit for the fourth quarter rose 46% year over year, which finished off their best year on record.  Analysts had been looking for earnings of $1.02 a share and revenue of $9.71 billion.  The firm was able to navigate trade tensions and a Fed interest rate cut, an post earnings of $1.30 per share on $10.9 billion in revenue.  The shares are currently trading higher in the pre-market.

 

Tesla, Slippery When Wet

Shares of electric car maker, Tesla (TSLA) are lower after Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded the stock to underweight while raising their price target from $250 to $360.  They based their downgrade on the car maker’s high stock valuation, unfavorable risk reward, and risks to the long-term Chinese business.  The shares have seen meteoric rise, with their price doubling in the past four months.

 

Pre-Market Movers and Shakers

S&P 500 futures (/ES) +.35% near 3305

U.S. Crude Oil futures (/CL) +0.4% near $58.10 a barrel

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -4.1%  near 11.90

 

Morgan Stanley (MS) +6.2% near $56.25, after company reported results that beat expectations

Tesla (TSLA) -4.5% near $495, after an analyst downgrade

 

Major Economic Reports:

6:30 am CT – Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

7:30 am CT – Import and Export Prices

7:30 am CT – Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

9:30 am CT – EIA Natural Gas Report

3:30 pm CT – Fed Balance Sheet

3:30 pm CT – Money Supply

 

Notable Earnings:

 

Thursday – 1/16

A.M. – BK, MS, PPG, SCHW, TSM

P.M. – CSX

 

Friday  – 1/17

A.M. – FAST, KSU, SLB

P.M. – N/A


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Jan 15, 2020 - Market Blog

1/15/2020

  

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Can you hit the moving Target?

Retail giant Target (TGT) reported comparable sales for the two-month holiday period grew 1.4% year-over-year, badly trailing the 5.7% growth of the previous year.  Continued strength in multiple categories was offset by softer-than-expected performance in key holiday categories including electronics, toys and portions of home. Together they account for approximately one-third of the company’s holiday season sales.  Due to the poor holiday performance, Target is lowering its fourth-quarter comparable sales growth outlook to 1.4% from prior guidance of 3% to 4%.  The stock is trading lower in the pre-market.

 

Oh that’s right, we can’t forget about Malaysia

Financial juggernaut Goldman Sachs' (GS) profit fell 24% in the fourth quarter as the bank set aside more money for an expected government settlement relating to its ties to a corrupt Malaysian investment fund.  Goldman Sachs reported Q4 EPS of $4.69, down from $6.04 in the prior year which missed the consensus estimate of $5.11 per share on better than expected revenue of $9.96 billion.  Revenue was helped by gains in the global markets, as well as  wealth management. Fixed income, currency and commodities revenue jumped 63% for the quarter to $1.77 billion.  The shares are trading down in the pre-market.

 

Pre-Market Movers and Shakers

S&P 500 futures (/ES) -0.2% near 3283

U.S. Crude Oil futures (/CL) -0.1% near $58.18 a barrel

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) +2.7%  near 12.70

 

Target (TGT) -6.6% near $116.80, after company reported poor holiday sales

Beyond Meat (BYND) -5% near $111.50, after an analyst downgrade

Goldman Sachs (GS) -1.4% near $242.25, after the company released disappointing earnings

 

Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Mortgage Applications

7:30 am CT – PPI-FD

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg Survey

9:00 am CT – Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations

9:30 am CT – EIA Petroleum Status Report

1:00 pm CT – Beige Book

 

Notable Earnings:

Wednesday  – 1/15

A.M. – BAC, BLK, GS, PNC, UNH, USB

P.M. –  AA, KMI

 

Thursday – 1/16

A.M. – BK, MS, PPG, SCHW, TSM

P.M. – CSX, TEAM


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Jan 14, 2020 - Market Blog

1/14/2020

  

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Go ahead and J(UM)P

Shares of the largest U.S. bank, JP Morgan (JPM) are on the rise by over 1% this morning after reporting much better than expected 4th quarter results with the continued tailwinds of a strong consumer.  Revenue came in at an impressive $28.3 billion over the past three months which easily topped expectations. Earnings overall came in at $2.57 a share which was significantly higher than the analysts’ consensus of $2.36.  Fixed income revenue saw the most pronounced expansion with a whopping 86% improvement over the same period the year prior that essentially equated to an extra $1 billion surprise to the bottom line. Today’s boost may push shares closer to the record $141.10 perch which was reached on the last trading day of 2019 as the company posted their most profitable year on record. 

 

Friendly Skies

The combination of high travel demand along with cheaper energy costs propelled Delta Airlines (DAL) to a solid 4th quarter profit of $1.70 a share, which was good enough to beat analysts’ expectations by a gapping $0.30.  Revenue overall jumped by 6.5% to $11.44 billion thanks to strong premium cabin sales as the company surely assumed overflow from the ongoing 737 Max snafu that their competitors are still grappling with.  Forward guidance of flat margins and per share estimates of $6.75-$7.75 were enough to appease investors as shares are now up nearly 4% ahead of the bell. 

 

Pre-Market Movers and Shakers

S&P 500 futures (/ES) -0.03% near 3288.5

U.S. Crude Oil futures (/CL) +0.7% near $58.53 a barrel

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) +.08%  near 12.43

 

Tesla (TSLA) +3.6% near $542, after company announced expansion in China

Wells Fargo (WFC) -3.2% near $50.40 after slipping off a weaker than expected earnings result

Luckin Coffee Inc. (LK) +1.75% near $46.70 to capture new all-time high after successful offering

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

5:00 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

7:30 am CT – CPI

7:55 am CT – Redbook

 

Notable Earnings:

 

Tuesday  – 1/14

A.M. – C, DAL, JPM, WFC

P.M. –  N/A

 

Wednesday – 1/15

A.M. – BAC, BLK, GS, PNC, UNH, USB

P.M. –  AA, KMI


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Jan 13, 2020 - The Week Ahead

1/13/2020

 

The Week Ahead

  

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This Week is for the Banks

After raising rates nine times in the previous three years, the Fed reversed course and raised rates three times last year.  This put pressure on what banks could charge on loans, which reduces the profitability on their lending arms.  Analysts are looking for the big banks to post a 6% growth in earnings over the fourth quarter of last year, but that could be a misleading metric as results were dismal in the fourth quarter of 2018.  JP Morgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) will be reporting their quarterly results on Tuesday, while Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs (GS) will release on Wednesday.   Morgan Stanley (MS) will round out the group when they report on Thursday.

 

Phase One

The initial trade agreement between the U.S. and China is scheduled to be signed on Wednesday.  Within the deal, China is expected to purchase $200 billion in U.S. products, while the U.S. has agreed to reduce tariffs on Chinese products.  Text from Phase One of the trade deal is expected to be posted online the moment that the agreement is signed on Wednesday.

 

Pre-Market Movers and Shakers

S&P 500 futures (/ES) +0.28% near 32.74

U.S. Crude Oil futures (/CL) -0.5% near $58.70 a barrel

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) +2.5% near 12.88

 

 Economic Releases (1/13-1/17):

Monday:

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget

 

Tuesday:

5:00 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

7:30 am CT – CPI

7:55 am CT – Redbook

 

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Mortgage Applications

7:30 am CT – PPI-FD

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

9:00 am CT – Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations

9:30 am CT – EIA Petroleum Status Report

1:00 pm CT – Beige Book

 

Thursday:

6:30 am CT – Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

7:30 am CT – Import and Export Prices

7:30 am CT – Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

9:30 am CT – EIA Natural Gas Report

3:30 pm CT – Fed Balance Sheet

3:30 pm CT – Money Supply

 

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

9:00 am CT – JOLTS

9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

12:00 pm CT – Baker-Hughes Rig Count

 

Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week (1/13-1/17):

Monday:

A.M. – N/A

P.M. – N/A

 

Tuesday:

A.M. – C, DAL, JPM, WFC

P.M. – N/A

 

Wednesday:

A.M. – BAC, BLK, GS, PNC, UNH, USB

P.M. – AA, KMI

 

Thursday:

A.M. – BK,MS, PPG, SCHW, TSM

P.M. – CSX, TEAM

 

Friday:

A.M. – FAST, KSU, SLB

P.M. – N/A

 

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Showing Week of Jan 06, 2020

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Jan 10, 2020 - Market Blog

1/10/2020

  

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Not so fast with those ‘Grubby’ hands

Food delivery service, GrubHub (GRUB) has denied that it is for sale or considering plans to sell the company.  The company’s shares rose 12.5% on Wednesday and added another 1.79% on Thursday, following reports that several companies, including supermarket chains and general retailers, were interested in buying the company.  Over the years, the fast-food delivery industry has become very competitive, with rivals that include DoorDash, Postmates and Uber Eats.  GrubHub is currently trading down 8.5% in pre-market.

 

Wait, what does that memo say?

Commercial jet producer Boeing (BA), released internal documents pertaining to employee communications about the 737 Max aircraft between 2013 and 2018, which suggest employees deliberately ignored the safety issues with the now-grounded planes. Memos showed employees boasted about bullying regulators to approve the 737 Max without requiring pilots to undergo simulator training, while others raised safety concerns and complained about lax standards.   The stock is trading down in pre-market.

 

Pre-Market Movers and Shakers

S&P 500 futures (/ES) +0.15% near 3280

U.S. Crude Oil futures (/CL) -0.60% near $59.15 a barrel

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -0.80%  near 12.45

 

Boeing (BA) -0.60% near $334.00, after company released internal documents regarding 737 Max

Six Flags (SIX) -17.7% near $36, after a revenue warning and challenges with the development of parks in China

GrubHub (GRUB) -8.5% near $51.00, after company announced no plans to sell itself

 

Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Employment Situation

9:00 am CT – Wholesale Trade

12:00 pm CT – Baker-Hughes Rig Count

 

Notable Earnings:

Friday  – 1/10

A.M. – INFY

P.M. – N/A

 

Monday – 1/13

A.M. – N/A

P.M. – LMNR


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Jan 09, 2020 - Market Blog

1/9/2020

  

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It’s Getting Kohl’ed

Same store sales slipped surprisingly by -0.2% for the popular retailer, Kohl’s (KSS) during the annual Christmas shopping pilgrimage.  Women’s apparel was mostly to blame for the disappointing seasonal sales.  Shares have tumbled as much as 9% pre-market to test the 52 week low of $43.33 reached back in August. The company created a partnership with Amazon (AMZN) to act as the primary point-of-contact for return items in hopes that it would generate more foot traffic.     

 

Pico or Peak??

Fast casual diner, Chipotle (CMG) is pressing for new highs at $870.94 after yet another price target raise from analysts. Shares are up a whopping 18% since early November as their continued menu innovation and rewards program gains more momentum.  Trendy breakfast plans by competitors continue to be revealed, but the company has denied any intention of expanding hours to satisfy the growing appetites of customers.  Shares are up nearly 1% ahead of the opening bell. 

 

Pre-Market Movers and Shakers

S&P 500 futures (/ES) +0.35% near 3271

U.S. Crude Oil futures (/CL) +0.0% near $59.60 a barrel

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -3.35%  near 13.01

 

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +2.3% near $49, after a faster laptop processor was announced at CES conference

Alibaba (BABA) +1.2% near $221.85, after reports that the “Phase 1” deal with China is finally ready to be signed next week

 

Major Economic Reports:

6:30 am CT – Challenger Job-Cut Report

7:15 am CT – Housing Starts

7:30 am CT – Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT – EIA Natural Gas Report

12:00 pm CT – 30-Yr Bond Auction

3:30 pm CT – Fed Balance Sheet

3:30 pm CT – Money Supply

 

Notable Earnings:

 

Thursday   1/9

A.M. – AYI, LNN, SAR, SMPL

P.M. – KBH, PSMT, SNX, WDFC

 

Friday – 1/10

A.M. – INFY

P.M. – N/A


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Jan 08, 2020 - Market Blog

1/8/2020

  

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All Is Well…

In response to the U.S. killing of Iranian Major General Qassem Solemani, Iran fired more than a dozen missiles toward U.S. forces at two bases in Iraq beginning around 4:30 pm CT.  The bases had been on high alert, and no U.S. casualties have been reported.  S&P 500 futures (/ES) moved over 1.5% lower initially, but recovered fully after no deaths were reported.  President Trump is due to make a statement concerning the attack this morning at 10 am CT.

 

Not so Bad

Macy’s (M) reported better than expected same store sales for the fourth quarter which includes the holiday season.  The major retailer posted a 0.6% decline at the company’s owned and licensed stores during  November and December, but analysts had been looking for a steeper decline of 1.75%.  The shares are trading higher in the pre-market.

 

Pre-Market Movers and Shakers

S&P 500 futures (/ES) +0.1% near 3240

U.S. Crude Oil futures (/CL) -0.7% near $62.20 a barrel

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) +0.5%  near 14.50

 

Macy’s (M) +3.5% near $18.35, after the company reported better than expected holiday sales figures

 

Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Mortgage Applications

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

9:30 am CT – EIA Petroleum Status Report

12:00 pm CT – 10-Yr Note Auction

2:00 pm CT – Consumer Credit

 

Notable Earnings:

 

Wednesday – 1/8

A.M. – LEN, MSM, RPM, SCHN, STZ, UNF, WBA

P.M. – BBBY, HELE, KRUS

 

Thursday  – 1/9

A.M. – AYI, LNN, SAR, SMPL

P.M. – KBH, PSMT, SNX, WDFC


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Jan 07, 2020 - Market Blog

1/7/2020

  

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Tesla going to China and back

Electric car producer Tesla (TSLA) announced plans to produce a new car model in China, after the automaker delivered its first made-in-China Model 3 vehicles to consumers.  Tesla will manufacture its compact sports-utility vehicle Model Y in China, which they introduced in March of last year in a bid to appeal to a wider swath of electric-car buyers.  Tesla is set to report earnings after the market close on January 29th.

 

Boeing makes another deal

Commercial jet producer Boeing (BA) and American Airlines (AAL) reached a settlement on compensation for financial damages incurred in 2019 brought about by the grounding of the Boeing 737 Max aircraft.  It is being reported that Boeing will contribute more than $30 million to the American Airlines employee profit-sharing program.  This settlement comes a week after Boeing agreed to similar agreement with Turkish Airlines for $225 million. 

 

Pre-Market Movers and Shakers

S&P 500 futures (/ES) -0.1% near 3239

U.S. Crude Oil futures (/CL) -0.7% near $62.80 a barrel

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) +2%  near 14.12

 

Tesla (TSLA) +1.3% near $457.50, after company announced expansion in China

Micron (MU) +3.2% near $55.40 after analyst upgrade

Apache (APA) +16% near $29.90, after finding oil off the coast of Suriname in South America

 

Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – International Trade

7:55 am CT – Redbook

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg Index

 

Notable Earnings:

Tuesday  – 1/7

A.M. – ANGO

P.M. – NEXFO

 

Wednesday – 1/8

A.M. – LEN, MSM, RPM, SCHN, STZ, UNF, WBA

P.M. – BBBY, HELE, KRUS


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Jan 06, 2020 - The Week Ahead

1/6/2020

 

The Week Ahead

  

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The best defense is a good offense ….

Shares of several defense stocks shot higher last week after the U.S. military targeted Iran’s most powerful military commander, General Soleimani in a planned airstrike.  Lockheed Martin (LMT), the largest defense contracted based on revenue spiked over 7% in the previous two sessions to register a fresh all-time high at $417.17.  Missile and defense systems contractor, Raytheon Technologies (RTN) also marked fresh highs at $230. The only notable setback in the entire sector is Boeing (BA) which continues to struggle just above 52 week lows of $319.55 with the continued fallout from the 737 Max snafu. 

 

Golden Opportunity

Shares of gold miner, Nemont Mining (NEM) are posturing to potentially capture a fresh 5 year high near $44 as investors scramble toa  perceived safety haven. The company is up an impressive 48% since last May as relatively low interest rates have created more demand for the precious metal.  A recently announced stock repurchase program for up to $1 billion has also helped to propel shares higher.  Earlier this morning, the board also announced intentions to raise their quarterly dividend by 79% starting in April at $0.25 a shares. Gold futures (/GC) are now up on 5 straight sessions, and 1.6% pre-market to $1577 an ounce 

 

Pre-Market Movers and Shakers

S&P 500 futures (/ES) -0.57% near 3216.75

U.S. Crude Oil futures (/CL) +1.3% near $63.87 a barrel

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) +12.34% near 15.75

 

Economic Releases (1/6-1/10):

 

Monday:

 

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index

11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX

 

Tuesday: 

 

7:30 am CT – International Trade

7:55 am CT – Redbook

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg Index

 

Wednesday:

 

6:00 am CT – MBA Mortgage Applications

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

9:30 am CT – EIA Petroleum Status Report

12:00 pm CT – 10-Yr Note Auction

2:00 pm CT – Consumer Credit

 

Thursday:

 

6:30 am CT – Challenger Job-Cut Report

7:15 am CT – Housing Starts

7:30 am CT – Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT – EIA Natural Gas Report

12:00 pm CT – 30-Yr Bond Auction

3:30 pm CT – Fed Balance Sheet

3:30 pm CT – Money Supply

 

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Employment Situation

9:00 am CT – Wholesale Trade

12:00 pm CT – Baker-Hughes Rig Count

 

Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week (1/6-1/10):

 

Monday:

A.M. – CALM, CMC

P.M. – N/A

 

Tuesday:

A.M. – ANGO

P.M. – NEXFO

 

Wednesday:

A.M. – LEN, MSM, RPM, SCHN, STZ, UNF, WBA

P.M. – BBBY, HELE, KRUS

 

Thursday:

A.M. – AYI, LNN, SAR, SMPL

P.M. – KBH, PSMT, SNX, WDFC

 

Friday:

A.M. – INFY

P.M. – N/A


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