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Aug 23, 2019 - Market Blog

8/23/2019

 

Don’t Call it an Easing….

 

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Equities

A weaker than expected manufacturing number yesterday turned stocks lower after being up early on.  The IHS flash manufacturing purchase managers index came in at 49.9 for August, its lowest reading since 2009.  A reading above 50 is usually a sign of expansion.  Earnings reports from retailers were a mixed bag.  Nordstrom (JWN) jumped 16% to $30.75 on a beat, while L Brands (LB) dropped 3.5% to $19.33 after sales at Victoria’s Secret continued to decline.  On the day, the Dow Jones Industrials ($DJI) ended up 0.2% to 26252.24, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) fell 0.4% to 7991.39, and the S&P 500 (SPX) lost 0.1% to 2922.95.

 

Credit Markets:

Yesterday’s weak manufacturing number and poor data out of Germany, briefly sent the yield on 10yr. Treasury note below the 2yr., which is viewed by many as a recessionary signal.  Minutes from the Fed’s July meeting showed that the central bankers were divided on their what to do with interest rates.  The yield on the 10yr. Treasury note (TNX) settled higher at 1.613% yesterday from 1.577% on Wednesday.

 

Commodities:

After rising 1% earlier in the session U.S. crude oil prices, reversed course yesterday and ended lower on rising fuel supplies.  U.S. crude oil futures (/CL) settled 0.6% lower to $55.35 a barrel.  Gold prices (/GC) dropped 0.5% to $1497.30 a troy ounce.

 

Pre-Market:

S&P 500 futures (/ES) were 0.4% higher earlier this morning, but that was until China released news that it was going to impose tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. products.  The /ES futures totally reversed course on the news, and are now down almost 0.5% on the session near 2908.  This is unique timing considering the market is awaiting Fed Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech due out at 9a.m. CT.  Should make for an interesting morning. 

 

Major Economic Reports:

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT – FOMC Chairman Powell speaks

12:00 pm CT – Baker-Hughes Rig Count

 

Notable Earnings:

   

Friday – 8/23:

 

A.M. – FL

 

P.M. – N/A

 

 

Monday – 8/26:

 

A.M. –N/A

 

P.M. – N/A

 

 

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Aug 22, 2019 - Market Blog

8/22/2019

 

Rocky Mountain High!

 

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Equities

U.S. Equities enjoyed a solid performance yesterday bolstered by a renewed vitality in retail.   Both Target (TGT) and Lowes (LOW) exploded by double digits Wednesday off a series of solid earnings reports to validate the durability of consumers despite the ongoing trade war.  Both Nordstrom’s (JWN) and Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) look to echo similar performances in today’s session off strong beats of their own. All 11 S&P 500 sectors gained on the day which put the index clearly back above the 29K threshold to end at 2924 in the SPX. Consumer discretionary stocks won the day outright with an impressive 1.8% advantage coming from the group. Overall, major benchmarks cleared nearly 1% across the board as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) constricted below the 16 level for its lowest mark so far in August. 

 

Credit Markets:

The 10 year Treasury yield jumped by nearly 3% overnight as the Federal Reserve defends their July actions as simply a “mid-cycle” adjustment to defer any implications of specific future action.  Minutes from the Federal Reserve yesterday briefly inverted the yield curve to spark fresh recessionary concerns with the 10 year now at 1.611%. New Home Sales will be shared tomorrow with a 645K projection after 3 straight months of under-achievement as real estate adjusts to the recent plunge in rates. 

 

Commodities:

Oil inventories dropped by 2.7 million barrels over the previous week which has crude (/CL) now in a holding pattern near $56 a barrel. Gold (/GC) continues to barely hang on to the $1500 an ounce level with some of the geo-political concerns being de-escalated as of late taking some demand out of the precious metal after peaking last week.

 

Pre-Market:

Equity futures (/ES) have oscillated overnight, but currently hint at a positive start after Weekly jobless claims came in 7K less than expected at 209,000 which is right in line with its recent average.  A flash manufacturing PMI will also be released just after the open with a target of 50.5. The expectation hasn’t been met since January as purchasing intent has wavered among uncertain conditions.  All eyes will be on Jackson Hole the remainder of the week as the Central Banking Summit kicks off this morning to garner acute attention to determine the Fed’s next steps as Trump demands a rate cut to keep pace with global trade partners chase to negative yields. 

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

3-Yr Note, 10-Yr Note & 3-Yr Bond Settlement

7:30 am CT – Jobless Claims

8:45 am CT – PMI Composite FLASH

9:00 am CT – Leading Indicators

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

9:30 am CT – EIA Natural Gas Report

10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

3:30 pm CT – Money Supply

3:30 pm CT – Fed Balance Sheet

 

Notable Earnings:

  

Thursday– 8/22:

 

A.M. –DKS, HRL, PLCE

 

P.M. – CRM, GPS, HPQ, INTU

 

Friday – 8/23:

 

A.M. – FL

 

P.M. – N/A

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Aug 21, 2019 - Market Blog

8/21/2019

 

Counting every Fed Minute

 

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Equities

U.S. equities opened lower yesterday morning, then briefly managed to reverse course, but then weakened and remained under pressure for the rest of the session, closing with a burst of selling.   Home Depot (HD) helped keep losses in check.  Shares of the home improvement retailer rose 4.4% on better-than-expected earnings.  However, the retailer warned tariffs could hit consumer spending and cut its full-year revenue outlook.  Chip stocks, which are sensitive to trade news, contributed to Tuesday’s decline.   Shares of Micron Technology (MU) and Advanced Micro Devices dipped 1.7% and 2.4, respectively.  Neflix (NFLX) shares pulled back 3.4%.  Bank shares such as Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) and J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) all traded lower as Treasury yields pulled back.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) fell for the first time in four sessions Tuesday,  ending the day 0.7% lower at 25,962.44.  The S&P 500 (SPX) pulled back 0.8% to 2,900.51,  while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) slid 0.7% to 7,948.56.

 

Credit Markets:

U.S. government-bond prices rose Tuesday after Italy’s coalition government dissolved, adding to the array of risks facing global investors.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell for the first time in three trading sessions, settling at 1.557% from 1.603% Monday.  Government-bond yields around the world, including in Germany, Japan and the U.K. also fell as Germany was preparing to sell 30-year government debt at a negative yield after selling negative-yielding 10-yhear bunds in June.

 

Commodities:

Oil prices (/CL) settled slightly higher for a third straight session on Tuesday at $56.12 a barrel, ahead of the U.S. government data that is expected to reveal a weekly decline in domestic crude stockpiles, following back-to-back weekly supply increases   Tensions in the Middle East are also adding to the price action in oil. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Tuesday that the United States would take every action it can to prevent an Iranian tanker in the Mediterranean from delivering oil to Syria in contravention of U.S. sanctions

 

Pre-Market:

U.S. stock futures are higher this morning as upbeat earnings from retailers Target (TGT) and Lowe’s (LOW) are leading the way ahead of the release of the latest Federal Reserve minutes for clues on monetary policy later this afternoon.  Shares of (TGT) are 15% higher in pre-market trading as the retail giant reported Q2 earnings that topped analysts’ expectations.  Lowes (LOW)  shares are 12% higher in premarket as the home-improvement retailer’s earnings climbed 10% in the second quarter.  Traders will also be waiting for Fed Chairman Powell to speak at a Fed symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday to get more clarity on interest rates.  As of this writing, S&P 500 futures (/ES) are up 0.9% near 2925, while crude oil futures (/CL) are 1.1% higher near $56.70 a barrel,

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Mortgage Applications

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

9:30 am CT – EIA Petroleum Status Report

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Minutes

 

Notable Earnings:

Wednesday– 8/21:

A.M. – LOW, TGT

P.M. – JWN, LB, SPLK

 

Thursday– 8/22:

A.M. – DKS, HRL, PLCE

P.M. – CRM, GPS, HPQ, INTU

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Aug 20, 2019 - Market Blog

8/20/2019

 

Waiting for Powell…

 

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Equities

U.S. equities moved higher yesterday after the White House said they were in the planning stage for new talks with China.  In addition, Chinese officials announced an adjustment to their interest rate mechanism that many took as a sign that their central bank would adopt a more dovish monetary policy.  This sent bond yields and interest rate sensitive stocks ,such as banks, higher.  Goldman Sachs (GS) gained 1.4% to $202.20, while Citigroup (C) rose 1.3% to $64.31.  Technology companies also helped fuel the rally with Nvidia (NVDA) and Micron Technology (MU) both rising 3%.  On the day, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose 1.4% to 8002.81, the Dow Jones Industrials ($DJI) gained 1% to 26135.79, and the S&P 500 (SPX) advanced 1.2% to 2923.65.  

 

Credit Markets:

Long term U.S. Treasury bonds sold off as the Treasury Department announced they were considering issuing Ultra Long term 50yr. or 100yr.  bonds.  This weighed on  U.S. 30yr. Bond futures (/ZB) as traders speculated, the longer term bonds could shift demand away from the 30yr.  The yield on the 30yr. bond (TYX) settled at 2.090% from 2.001% on Friday.  The 10yr. Treasury note (TNX) rose to 1.603% from 1.540%.

 

Commodities:

Oil prices rose yesterday on new hopes of better trade relations between the U.S. and China.  U.S. Crude oil futures (/CL) gained 2.4% to settle at $56.21 a barrel.

 

Pre-Market:

U.S. equity futures are slightly lower, after Asian markets were mixed overnight.  After a strong open yesterday morning, equity markets languished for most of yesterday afternoon.   Many traders are waiting for Fed Chairman Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday before taking any significant positions.  Home Depot (HD) and Kohls (KSS) both reported earnings before the open. HD is 2% higher, while KSS is unchanged in the pre-market.   As of this writing, S&P 500 futures (/ES) are 0.2% lower near 2917, oil futures (/CL) are 0.7% lower near $55.80 a barrel, while gold futures (/GC) are up 0.2% near 1,514 an ounce.

 

Major Economic Reports:

7:55 am CT – Redbook

5:00 pm CT – FOMC member Quarles speaks

 

 

Notable Earnings:

Tuesday– 8/20:

A.M.– HD, KSS, MDT

P.M. CREE, TOL, URBN

 

Wednesday – 8/21:

A.M. – LOW, TGT

P.M. – JWN, LB, SPLK

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Aug 19, 2019 - The Week Ahead

August 19, 2019

 

The Week Ahead

 

Another trading week is set to resume with 1% gains being projected across all major indices as potential tariff relief is being priced in with the trade saga evolving. The S&P 500 (SPX) ended Friday at 2888 after bottoming the previous session to claw back most of the losses found earlier in the week.  The administration has attempted to shake off recessionary concerns which was the main catalyst to last week’s sharp sell-off by pointing to strong employment and the longstanding benefits of tax relief. The People’s Bank of China issued a statement over the weekend pledging to effectively lower borrowing cost for businesses to fend off further concerns of a global slowdown. Germany also followed suit with $50 Billion Euro earmarked in case of economic crisis as appetites grow for new government stimulus. The yield on 10-year treasuries jumped by 7 basis points to reach 1.61% this morning after sinking as low as 1.47% last week off recessionary panic which saw the much dreaded yield curve invert for the first time in over a decade. 

 

This week’s economic calendar will remain extremely light with nothing of major import other than the standard weekly releases expected until Wednesday’s much anticipated sharing of July’s FOMC minutes.  There is currently a 100% probability of a rate cut priced in by the end of the year as global leaders look to flood markets with fresh money supply. Gold Futures (/GC) are unsurprisingly losing some luster with a 1% reduction to remain just above the $1500 an ounce threshold. Energy prices are seeing the direct inverse with a 1% improvement in crude pricing (/CL) to trade north of $55 a barrel once again off improved sentiment with the latest gloom and doom possibly averted for now. 

 

The pinnacle of the week will likely rest in Jackson Hole as the Federal Reserve’s annual policy symposium will kick off Thursday to hopefully shed more light on the interest rate trajectory culminating with Fed Chair Powell’s comments on Friday.  Earnings continue to dwindle although several brick and mortar retailers eagerly await an opportunity to shine throughout the week.  Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW), and Target (TGT) will likely be the most influential.  Volatility saw an extremely large range over the course of last week with a 24 handle reached in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) Wednesday before quickly imploding below 17.5 to close out the week.

 

Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week (8/19-8/23):

 

Monday:

A.M. – WB

P.M. –  BIDU, IQ

 

Tuesday:

A.M.– HD, KSS, MDT

P.M. CREE, TOL, URBN

 

Wednesday:

A.M. – LOW, TGT

P.M. – JWN, LB, SPLK

 

Thursday:

A.M. – DKS, HRL, PLCE

P.M. – CRM, GPS, HPQ, INTU

 

Friday:

A.M. – FL

P.M. – N/A

 

Economic Releases (8/19-8/23):

 

Monday:

9:00 am CT – E-Commerce Retail Sales

 

Tuesday:

7:55 am CT – Redbook

5:00 pm CT – FOMC member Quarles speaks

 

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Mortgage Applications

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

9:30 am CT – EIA Petroleum Status Report

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Minutes

 

Thursday:

Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

3-Yr Note, 10-Yr Note & 3-Yr Bond Settlement

7:30 am CT – Jobless Claims

8:45 am CT – PMI Composite FLASH

9:00 am CT – Leading Indicators

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

9:30 am CT – EIA Natural Gas Report

10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

3:30 pm CT – Money Supply

3:30 pm CT – Fed Balance Sheet

 

Friday:

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT – FOMC Chairman Powell speaks

12:00 pm CT – Baker-Hughes Rig Count

 

 *Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

*BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

 

Join the other recipients and help provide some feedback on our daily market blog and Weekend Update by sending an e-mail to support@tradewise.com. Your suggestions are important to us in providing the highest quality service.

Showing Week of Aug 12, 2019

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Aug 16, 2019 - Market Blog

8/16/2019

 

When volatility was your friend..

 

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Equities

U.S. equities rebounded on Thursday, making back some of the steep losses in previous session, as China stated it hopes the U.S side will meet halfway. Strong retail sales figures led investors to believe the U.S. consumer can still help the country avoid a recession.  Consumers spent more at stores and restaurants last month, a sign that fears of a global slowdown that have roiled financial markets haven’t yet soured consumer optimism.  Retail store giant Walmart (WMT) reported better-than-expected earnings and raised its outlook for the full year, sending its stock price 6.1% higher Thursday.  The leader saw growth in its core domestic business as well as online operations, marking the 20th consecutive quarter of sales gains in the U.S.  Shares of Cisco (CSCO) plunged 8.6% Thursday after it said future earnings would be lighter than expected because of a significant impact from the U.S. and China trade war.  The tech giant also said China revenue fell 25% last quarter on an annualized basis.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) ended the volatile session 0.39% higher to 25,579.39 after suffering its worst day of the year the session prior.  The S&P 500 (SPX) was up 0.25% to 2,847.6 while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) ended slightly lower at 7.766.62.

 

Credit Markets:

U.S. government-bond prices continued to rally Thursday, as the 30-year Treasury bond yield fell below 2% for the first time ever and the 10-year Treasury note yield closed at 1.475%, a three year low. The historic drop in long-term U.S. bond yields come shortly after interest rates between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury’s became inverted.  The inversion of this key part of the yield curve has previously been a reliable indicator of economic recessions albeit on a delayed basis.  

 

Commodities:

Oil prices (/CL) declined for a second consecutive day Thursday, closing 1.4% loser to $54.47 a barrel amid worries that slowing global growth will weigh on demand.  Gold prices (/GC) closed up 0.2% at 1,533.90 an ounce as a slump on global bond yields continue to spark demand for gold as store of value after the 10-year German bund yield fell to new record low of -0.714% and the 10-year UK Gilt yield dropped to a new record low of 0.404%.

 

Pre-Market:

Stocks around the world are staging a modest rebound Friday, lifted by hopes of a robust package of stimulus measures from the European Central Bank along with strong retail sales data in the U.S. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1.2%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.9%, while Japan’s Nikkei edged up 0.1% to finish out the week. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are looking higher in premarket after Europe and China announced plans for additional stimulus to shore up their economies in the wake of a global trade war.  U.S. housing starts dropped 4.0% to a seasonally adjusted 1.191 million units last month, its third straight month of declines. Shares of California-based chip maker (NVDA) are up 6.4% in premarket trading after posting strong sales-growth figures for Q2.  Farm-equipment maker Deere & Co. (DE) shares are down near 3.5% in premarket trading after topping revenue expectations, but falling short on earnings.   As of this writing, S&P 500 futures (/ES) are up 0.9% near 2875, oil futures (/CL) are slightly higher near $54.80 a barrel, while gold futures (/GC) are down 0.6% near 1,520 an ounce.

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

Friday:

 

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

9:00 am CT – Quarterly Services Report (Advance)

9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

12:00 pm CT – Baker-Hughes Rig Count

 

Notable Earnings:

Friday– 8/16:

A.M. – DE

P.M. – N/A

 

Monday– 8/19:

A.M. – EL

P.M. – BIDU

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Aug 15, 2019 - Market Blog

8/15/2019

 

Calling Out the Fed

 

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Equities

In a reversal of the prior day’s optimism, equity markets plunged as the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted, a sign that many view as a signal that a recession is likely.  This spooked investors and sent the Dow Jones Industrials down 800 points, its biggest loss of the year.  We have seen large swings in the usually liquid S&P 500 futures (/ES) as traders react to the latest tweet.  The up moves have been more in reaction to some perceived positive tweet, whereas the sell offs are more about bad economic data and earnings releases.  On the day, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) dropped 3% to 7773.93, the Dow Jones Industrials ($DJI) lost 3% to 25479, and the S&P 500 (SPX) reversed 2.9% to 2840.60.

 

Credit Markets:

 

As much as the equity market selloff was in the headlines, the bond market’s latest rally has been the real underlying story.  The yield on the U.S. 10yr Treasury note fell below the 2yr., inverting the yield curve for the first time since 2007.  In addition, the yield on the 30y. Treasury bond fell to a record low 2.018% yesterday.  To put that in perspective, that yield was not even that low during the dark days of 2008-2009.  As equities have been gyrating, bonds have kept powering higher.

 

Commodities:

Poor economic data out of Germany and China, along with a deep sell off in equities put pressure on oil and other risky assets.  U.S. crude oil futures (/CL) fell 3.3% yesterday to settle at $55.23 a barrel.  This was the third move of 3% or more lower in the month of August.

 

Pre-Market:

S&P 500 futures(/ES)  have been on a roller coaster ride overnight.  They were more than $30 lower just 3 hours ago after it was reported that the U.S was attempting to take control of a British oil tanker under Iranian control.  Then they shot higher to $30 higher on the session after China came out with a statement that they hoped the U.S. could meet them half way.  The futures have sold off their highs after some mixed economic data.  As of this writing, U.S. crude oil futures (/CL) are 1.7% lower near $54 per barrel, and S&P 500 futures (/ES) are 0.2% higher near 2848.

Major Economic Reports:

 

3-Yr Note, 10-Yr Note & 3-Yr Bond Settlement

7:30 am CT – Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg Survey

7:30 am CT – Productivity and Costs

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

9:30 am CT – EIA Natural Gas Report

3:00 pm CT – Treasury International Capital

3:30 pm CT – Money Supply

3:30 pm CT – Fed Balance Sheet

 

Notable Earnings:

  

Thursday– 8/15:

 

A.M. –BABA, TPR, WMT

 

P.M. – AMAT, DDS, NVDA

Friday – 8/16:

 

A.M. – DE

 

P.M. – N/A

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

 

Aug 14, 2019 - Market Blog

8/14/2019

 

Curve Ball!

 

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Equities

 

Yesterday’s strong overall performance off sudden tariff relief from the administration became short-lived as futures (/ES) appear set to erase most of any progress made. Duties on goods worth over $150 billion were temporarily delayed into mid-December as the concession sparked hopes of a de-escalation towards the longwinded trade war. The Dow ($DJI) settled 372 points higher with only 2 components down on the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) looks suspect to breech the 2900 level this morning with banking stocks taking much of the brunt off a 3% implosion amid recessionary fears.  Brick and mortar retailers also continue to struggle amid an Amazon-dominated world as popular Macy’s (M) shed 12% of its stock price overnight off a sizeable earnings miss. 

 

Credit Markets:

 

The 10 year Treasury yield slipped to 1.61% ahead of the open as recessionary fears re-surface after the 2 year yield topped the longer 10 year rate for the first time in over a decade as a potential canary in the coalmine. The corresponding yield on the 30 year bond also plunged to a new record at 2.015% as safe haven assets will likely win the day. 

 

Commodities:

Oil futures (/CL) are down a staggering 3.5% near the $55 a barrel mark after China signaled an alarming 17 year growth lull in industrial output dampening demand. Weekly inventory numbers will be coming just after the open with a 2.5 million draw expected. Gold Futures (/GC) are currently trading $9 higher as safety becomes paramount. 

 

Pre-Market:

 

Europe also saw poor industrial production overnight with a 1.6% contraction on top of a weak reading on the German economy which sent German bond yields to fresh record lows. All of Europe is trading lower in tandem with the string of troubling data. Import prices in the U.S. were expected to flat line, but came in higher at 0.2% indicating some early signs of inflation. Equities are slipping by nearly 1.5% pre-market as the yield curve inversion sparks fresh fears of a likely recession. Cisco (CSCO) will be on display after the close with the stock currently hanging right on the 200 dma. Ninety percent of all S&P 500 companies have reported up to this point but several retailers will be eagerly watched in the days to come. 

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

Wednesday:

 

6:00 am CT – MBA Mortgage Applications

7:30 am CT – Import and Export Prices

9:00 am CT – Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations

9:30 am CT – EIA Petroleum Status Report

 

Notable Earnings:

 

Wednesday– 8/14:

 

A.M. – M

 

P.M. – CSCO, NTAP

 

Thursday– 8/15:

 

A.M. – BABA, TPR, WMT

 

P.M. – AMAT, DDS, NVDA

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Aug 13, 2019 - Market Blog

8/13/2019

 

Don’t Cry for Me Argentina…

 

Option Trade Ideas for your Inbox!  Get 2 Free Strategies for 60 days email support@tradewise.com or call 877.733.6786*

 

Equities

Continued trade worries, increasing tensions is Hong Kong, and a selloff in Argentina kept downward pressure on stocks in yesterday’s session.  Violent demonstrations over the weekend in Hong Kong, forced officials to cancel over 130 flights yesterday after protests disrupted operations.  The Argentinian Merval index closed down 38% yesterday after the country’s pro-business president was defeated by a leftist opponent in a primary election.  Semiconductor stocks continued to feel trade pressures, with Nvidia (NVDA) losing 1.8% to $151.45 and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) dropping 5.1% to $32.43.  Retreating bond yields sent banks stocks lower, with Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) both losing more than 2%.  On the day, the Dow Jones Industrials ($DJI) lost 1.5% to 25896.44, the S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 1.2% to 2882.44, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) fell 1.2% to 7863.41.

 

Credit Markets:

Global uncertainty and a political change in Argentina, sent U.S. Treasuries higher once again as investors looked for safe havens outside of equities.  The yield on the 10yr. Treasury note (TNX) settled at 1.640%, its lowest level since October 2016, after Friday’s settlement of 1.731%.

 

Commodities:

Gold Futures (/GC) continued to move higher on escalating global tensions, with December futures closing almost 1% higher at $1522.30 per troy ounce in yesterday’ session.  U.S. Oil prices rose yesterday despite a steep drop in equities.  U.S. Crude oil futures (/CL) finished the day 0.8% higher near $55 per barrel.

 

Pre-Market:

After being lower earlier in the morning, equity futures rallied to almost unchanged after a benign CPI number.  July CPI rose 0.3% versus an expected 0.2%.  No real high profile earnings today, as earnings season begins to wind down.  As of this writing, U.S. crude oil futures were 0.6% lower near $54.50 and S&P 500 futures (/ES) were near unchanged near 2881.

 

Major Economic Reports:

5:00 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism report

7:30 am CT – CPI

7:55 am CT – Redbook

 

Notable Earnings:

 

Tuesday – 8/13:

A.M.–  JD

P.M. – HUYA, TLRY, YY

 

Wednesday – 8/14:

A.M. – GOOS, M

P.M. – AABA, CGC, CSCO, NTAP, VIPS

 

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Aug 12, 2019 - The Week Ahead

August 12, 2019

 

The Week Ahead

 

U.S. equites ended modestly lower after a week of trade-driven volatility.  The major indexes suffered their worst day of the year on Monday, while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) hit its highest level since late 2018.  Feuds between the world’s largest economies drove much of the market volatility.  China’s currency fell below the 7 yuan-to-1 U.S. dollar level for the first time since 2008, prompting U.S. officials to label China a currency manipulator.  On Friday, President Trump expressed skepticism as to whether the two countries trade negotiators will meet as scheduled in Washington next month.  The benchmarks recovered their losses in subsequent trading sessions but remained volatile through the end of the week.  The Dow Jones ($DJI) ended the week down 0.75%, The S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite finished the week down 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively.  Energy shares were among the worst performers in the S&P 500 index, weighed down by a midweek plunge in domestic oil prices, following a surprise rise in U.S. inventories.  Yields continued to tumble as the U.S. 10-year Note's yield dropped to a low of 1.60% last week.   The central banks of India, New Zealand and Thailand lowered rates on Wednesday, on the heels of last month’s U.S. interest rate cut.  The price of gold breached the $1,500-per-ounce level for the first time in six years, extending a strong run for the precious metal amid declining bond yields and increasing trade tensions. 

 

 

After last week's whipsawing price action , U.S. equity futures are picking up where they left off , amid growing concerns over the global economy.  U.S. stock index futures (/ES)  are down more than 0.5% pressured by worries that an ongoing trade dispute between Washington and Beijing could tip the world's economies into recession.  Losses accelerated in early trading this morning after Hong Kong International Airport cancelled all departures for the reminder of the day, citing serious disruptions due to intensifying protests.  The market will continue to monitor the strength of the yuan versus the dollar, as the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set its yuan fixing at 7.0211 per dollar Monday, marking the third consecutive session with an official midpoint past the psychological 7-per-dollar level.  There are just a few earnings left for the second-quarter with Walmart (WMT), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Nvidia (NVDA) and Deere (DE) all reporting this week.  As for economic numbers, CPI inflation data Tuesday morning, and a load of key reports will be released Thursday, including retail sales, PCE inflation data, industrial production and regional Fed surveys.  As of this writing, Gold futures (/GC) are 0.3% higher near 1,512 an ounce, U.S crude oil futures (CL) are up 0.5% near $54.80 a barrel, while the S&P 500 futures (/ES) are 0.5% lower near 2904.

 

Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week (8/12-8/16):

 

Monday:

A.M. – SYY

P.M. –  N/A

 

Tuesday:

A.M.N/A

P.M. N/A

 

Wednesday:

A.M. – M

P.M. – CSCO, NTAP

 

Thursday:

A.M. – TPR, WMT

P.M. – AMAT, DDS, NVDA

 

Friday:

A.M. – DE

P.M. – N/A

 

Economic Releases (8/12-8/16):

 

Monday:

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget

 

Tuesday:

5:00 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism report

7:30 am CT – CPI

7:55 am CT – Redbook

 

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Mortgage Applications

7:30 am CT – Import and Export Prices

9:00 am CT – Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations

9:30 am CT – EIA Petroleum Status Report

 

Thursday:

3-Yr Note, 10-Yr Note & 3-Yr Bond Settlement

7:30 am CT – Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg Survey

7:30 am CT – Productivity and Costs

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

9:30 am CT – EIA Natural Gas Report

3:00 pm CT – Treasury International Capital

3:30 pm CT – Money Supply

3:30 pm CT – Fed Balance Sheet

 

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

9:00 am CT – Quarterly Services Report (Advance)

9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

12:00 pm CT – Baker-Hughes Rig Count

 

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